Key takeaways
- An opening plan is provisional, not an irreversible commitment.
- Recompare routes after key draws, calls, kabe, or opponent pressure.
- Past discards and investment are sunk costs and cannot prove that continuing is better.
- Changing plans need not rebuild everything; shared melds and pairs reduce switching cost.
- No turn or success threshold applies across every hand and ruleset.
What is a hand plan?
A plan describes how the current hand expects to obtain eligibility and value:
- General fast completion
- Full or Half Flush
- All Pungs
- Staying closed
- Value Honor speed
- Another rules-specific yaku, fan, or tai route
The plan guides selection; it does not bind the player from first turn to last. Every draw reveals new information, so rational plans update.
How does sunk-cost bias appear?
Suppose the first three turns discarded two suits for a Full Flush, followed by an open call in the target suit. Later, target tiles fill the discard rows while the plan remains three-shanten. A Half Flush or standard route is one-shanten.
“I already discarded so much; changing would waste it” is the trap.
Those discards and calls cannot be recovered. The current decision should compare:
- Remaining steps from now
- Live tiles
- Winning eligibility
- Achievable value and game objective
- Existing structures lost by switching
Past investment explains the current hand but gives no extra future return.
Which events should trigger a recheck?
Key tiles become visible
Three or four copies needed by the original blocks or pungs appear, reducing live paths.
A draw opens a shorter route
A standard route falls from three-shanten to one-shanten while the planned limit hand remains distant.
A call changes eligibility
An open call removes closed yaku or scoring, or a Value Honor call establishes a fast eligible route.
Opponents speed up
Multiple calls, riichi, or visible pressure reduce the time available for a slow high-value plan.
The match objective changes
A small win may now preserve placement; conversely, a small win may no longer affect the result.
Defensive resources disappear
Continuing would require consecutive unsupported dangerous discards, making downgrade or fold more reasonable.
How should two routes be compared?
| Dimension | Original route | Alternative |
|---|---|---|
| Shanten | Steps remaining | Steps remaining |
| Live tiles | After visible correction | After visible correction |
| Eligibility | Certain or conditional | Certain or conditional |
| Value | Certain vs conditional | Certain vs conditional |
| Shared structure | Melds retained | Melds retained |
| Defense | Required discards | Exit tiles retained |
If the alternative is closer, has more live tiles, and remains eligible, the original route’s larger ideal score alone is usually insufficient.
What is switching cost?
Switching cost is not the feeling of waste. It is:
- How many completed or near-completed melds must break?
- How much does shanten worsen?
- Which certain yaku, fan, or tai disappears?
- Which live tiles does the new route require?
- Can open groups serve both routes?
Downgrading Full Flush to Half Flush may retain the same suit and honor groups at low cost. Moving from All Pungs back to sequences after three open pungs leaves little flexibility.
Three common transitions
Downgrade a value route
Full Flush to Half Flush, then to a standard hand. Retain shared suit and honor structure while accepting lower value for shorter distance.
Closed to open
As draws diminish or opponents accelerate, trade closed value for a certain meld. The open hand must still pass the winning-eligibility check.
Attack to defense
When the route is distant and live tiles are scarce under clear pressure, the objective changes from completion to a sequence of exits that avoids dealing in.
When should the original plan stay?
- It is at tenpai or one-shanten with many live tiles.
- The alternative merely looks flexible but is not closer.
- The original has certain eligibility while the alternative is conditional.
- Switching breaks multiple completed melds.
- The hand is early and no pressure has shortened the horizon.
Flexibility is not endless switching. Chasing every new central tile can destroy the hand’s direction.
A per-turn recheck
- Did the draw change the minimum-shanten route?
- Did key live tiles for the original route fall?
- Does each route remain eligible?
- Does its value meet the current objective?
- How much structure survives a switch?
- Has opponent pressure shortened the available time?
Reopen the plan when something material changes, not automatically every turn.
Common mistakes
- Never leaving Full Flush after discarding two suits.
- Comparing maximum score without completion paths.
- Treating every unknown tile as remaining in the wall.
- Automatically breaking good tenpai after an opponent’s riichi.
- Choosing a new pattern after every central draw.
Scope and limitations
This article provides a comparison method, not universal turn or probability thresholds. Taiwanese, Japanese, and Cantonese eligibility, payments, and dealer objectives differ. Use the actual rules, score, and visible information.
Pricing a switch with Tingpai Lab
List the discard candidates for the original and alternative routes. Compare shanten and live tiles first, then mark yaku, fan, tai, or safety retained. Tingpai Lab reveals the structural gap; the table rules and game state determine whether switching is worth it.
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